Source: Wattagnet
Between overbearing disease threats, including repeated bouts of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and avian metapneumovirus for good measure, and waning demand signals, it's often felt like industry stakeholders just couldn't catch a break.
There has been a palpable mood shift more recently, though, as turkey production and supplies bounce back sharply from very low levels by modern standards while key end product categories largely hold onto market gains achieved last year.
Historic supply reduction
Ready-to-cook (RTC) production of young turkeys in the U.S. cratered 5.5% overall last year from 2024 to just over 4.8 billion pounds. That was on top of the 6.2% decline observed the previous year and represented the smallest annual total since 1992. Taking it a step further and adjusting for net trade flows and population change, domestic per capita availability of turkey last year was at its lowest point on an annual basis since 1986.
It's been a much different story so far this year, however, with RTC output topping 1.2 billion pounds during the first quarter (January to March), clearing the prior-year total by an impressive 6.9%. Early indicators are signaling another robust increase during the second quarter (April to June) of 2026.
Resilient markets
During the last expansionary push from the U.S. turkey industry in 2023, it didn't take very long for key end product categories to completely melt down.
Fresh tom boneless skinless (b/s) breast meat traded as high as $6.70 per pound on a spot, wholesale basis in late 2022, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). By April of 2023, that market was already trading at less than half of that peak, below $3.25 per pound. This same market averaged nearly $7.25 per pound in December 2025, representing an all-time high on a monthly average basis.
Prices have eased in response to recent production and supply growth, but markets aren't softening nearly to the same degree they did three years ago. Fresh tom b/s breast meat still averaged a very impressive $5.09 per pound during April of this year, and similar resilience has been observed elsewhere in the complex. This suggests that wholesale turkey demand is holding up much better during the current growth phase compared with the last one.
Emerging players
One of the more interesting aspects of this turnaround in turkey industry circles is that the effort is being led by less familiar names, such as producers with much smaller footprints previously.
There is renewed optimism in this sector and a growing sense that it is finally moving beyond some of the woes that dogged it for so long.
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