The broiler sector could face a prolonged period of economic pressure as fallout from the war in Iran filters through feed costs and fuel prices. The effects of the conflict are unlikely to resolve quickly, with the biggest impacts on fertilizer-linked feed costs expected to materialize in 2027 and beyond, said Christine McCracken, executive director of animal proteins at Rabobank. Combined with persistently high fuel prices squeezing both operators and consumers, the industry should prepare for headwinds that will outlast the immediate news cycle, she warned.
Despite the headwinds, McCracken believes chicken remains structurally well-positioned relative to other proteins. If rising fuel prices hit consumer wallets and they shift away from foodservice andtoward retail, chicken's versatility across price points and formats gives it acompetitive edge. Recent innovation in quick service restaurants, particularly the growth of chicken tender concepts, has further strengthened the category's position with value-conscious consumers. "Consumers are still looking for protein, and they're still looking for value protein," she said. "Chicken can choose between bone-in product and deboned product. You can choose between a rotisserie and buying a whole bird. It really does feel like chicken, maybe better than some other proteins, has done a masterful job of providing a full palate of options for consumers."
She also pointed to the industry's ability to pivot quickly, noting that a weaker foodservice environment doesn't necessarily spell trouble for the category overall." The industry has done a good job pivoting to a value menu, and chicken's a big part of that," she said. "I do think that we're in a good position to benefit even in a weaker food service environment."
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