Global Overview
Despite regional differences, low feed costs and strong consumer demand are supporting global poultry markets heading into 2026. According to Rabobank’s Poultry Quarterly Report global growth in 2025 has been revised up from 2.6% to 2.8%, with most markets remaining profitable despite challenges such as HPAI and trade disruptions.
Asia recorded the strongest growth in 2025. China’s chicken production rose 7% in the first half of the year, while Türkiye, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, the Philippines and Vietnam also saw strong expansion. In some cases, rapid growth led to oversupply, prompting corrective measures such as parent stock culling in Indonesia and sow reductions in China. Growth was slower in Europe, Africa and Latin America due to tight parent stock supplies, with limited improvement expected before early 2026.
Lower feed costs supported profitability across most regions. In the EU and U.K., poultry prices reached historic highs while feed costs remained low.
Global Trade
Global poultry trade increased in the first half of 2025, despite reduced Brazilian exports following an HPAI outbreak. Trade volumes rose 1% year-on-year in the second quarter, a notable result given ongoing market disruptions.
U.S. reciprocal tariffs have not yet translated into higher U.S. exports, while China has significantly reduced imports from the U.S. in response. Thailand, Russia, Ukraine, China and Türkiye increased exports in 2025, while Brazil, the EU and the U.S. recorded declines. Looking ahead to 2026, Rabobank expects exports from Brazil and the U.S. to recover as Brazil regains market access and the U.S. benefits from new trade agreements.
Thailand’s exports rose 9% year-on-year in the first half, driven by strong demand from the EU amid tight supplies and restricted Brazilian exports. Russia increased shipments to Asia and China. While the outlook for trade remains positive, disruptions are expected to continue.
United States
U.S. poultry production increased significantly in 2025. Third-quarter output rose 3%, supported by higher slaughter numbers and heavier weights, with full-year production expected to be up 1.7%. Improved hatchability, strong margins, low feed costs and high chicken prices supported profitability, although higher production could pressure prices going forward.
China
China’s broiler production rose 7% in the first half of 2025 and remained strong toward year-end. Prices rebounded in August amid expectations of lower imports, while day-old chick prices rose sharply. Feed costs were around 10% lower than a year earlier, helping producers break even despite weak demand earlier in the year. Continued investment, however, risks oversupply.
Imports declined sharply following a ban on Brazilian poultry, with volumes down 9% year-on-year over the first seven months. Additional restrictions affected Thai suppliers, while U.S. imports fell due to a 15% tariff. In contrast, China’s exports rose 33% year-on-year. For 2026, the USDA expects production and consumption to grow, while imports are forecast to decline.
Brazil
As 2025 drew to a close, Brazil moved closer to regaining full export market access following the HPAI outbreak in May. The EU reopened to Brazilian poultry in late September, excluding Rio Grande do Sul, and China took steps toward resuming trade. August exports were down just 1.6% year-on-year, while September shipments were the strongest of recent months, according to the Brazilian Association of Animal Protein.
Low feed costs — the lowest since mid-2020 — supported the industry. For 2026, the USDA forecasts a 3% increase in chicken production to 15.8 million metric tons. Domestic consumption is expected to rise 3%, while exports are forecast to increase 2%.
European Union
EU poultry production fell 0.8% in the first half of the year. Turkey output declined 5.6%, while chicken production rose just 1%. A major wave of avian influenza in the second quarter led to parent stock culling in central Europe, resulting in lasting supply constraints.
Reduced imports from Ukraine due to quota reintroduction and the suspension of Brazilian imports cut breast meat supply by 20,000–25,000 metric tons per month. Strong demand pushed prices sharply higher, with Polish breast meat prices reaching record levels in May and remaining elevated through the third quarter.
Extra-EU exports declined 3% in the first half as the U.K. sourced more product from Ukraine, Thailand and Brazil. The outlook remains positive, with tight supply and strong demand expected to continue into early 2026.
Mexico
Mexico experienced significant price volatility in 2025. Prices peaked in May due to seasonal demand and HPAI-related supply tightness, fell in July and August, and reached historic lows in the third quarter before stabilizing in September. Strong cold storage inventories limited price recovery toward year-end.
Low feed prices supported producers, but HPAI remains a concern. Imports from the U.S. declined slightly in the first half, while Brazilian imports increased and continued to gain market share.
For 2026, the USDA forecasts Mexican chicken production to rise 2% to 4.2 million metric tons, with consumption up 3% to 1.1 million metric tons. Exports are expected to remain flat at 5,000 metric tons.
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