The overall broiler price index recorded its strongest rebound in the past two months, rising 0.9% to $2.59/kg. This was the largest weekly increase since Week 33. The index is returning to the upper boundary of the $2.56–2.59/kg range, where it has remained since mid-August. However, trading volumes continued to contract, falling 2.0% to 3,266 metric tons, a new low for the entire observation period. The market is rising on the thinnest trading volumes in the history of the available data. This is important: the index is increasing not because demand is recovering, but because supply is contracting even faster. A thin market is a fragile market. The week's biggest development was the sharp surge in mechanically separated meat (MSM). After many weeks of declining prices and one week of stabilization, MSM prices jumped 6.6% to $0.54/kg, accompanied by a 7.0% increase in trading volumes. This was the strongest weekly price increase across all categories. This defensive segment has returned with renewed strength. It appears that buyers, having identified a price floor around $0.51/kg, rushed to build up inventories. MSM has once again demonstrated its tendency to find a bottom first and lead the subsequent recovery.
The white meat market has split, and this is the week's most concerning signal.
Chicken breast prices plunged 3.0% to $2.61/kg, marking the sharpest decline in several weeks. Meanwhile, trading volumes increased by 8.0%. This is a classic inventory liquidation scenario: sellers have given in and started discounting aggressively to clear their stocks. Chicken breast prices have lost all the ground recovered during Weeks 38–39, falling below $2.62/kg for the first time in quite some time. Chicken fillet, by contrast, recorded a marginal increase of 0.2% to $2.48/kg, while trading volumes declined by 2.4%. This marks the third consecutive week of prices hovering within the $2.47–2.51/kg range. Fillet prices appear to have found a bottom but remain unable to move higher. The fillet market is stagnant: existing buyers are staying, but new demand is not emerging.
Dark meat prices reversed direction once again, for the third time in a month.
Chicken drumstick prices declined 1.3% to $1.22/kg, but trading volumes surged 30.4% to 1,103 metric tons, an all-time high. Buyers are actively purchasing drumsticks during price declines. This is no longer simply a shift between product categories but a sign of sustained, aggressive demand: every price correction is met with substantial buying activity.
Chicken leg quarters lost 1.7% to $1.16/kg, while trading volumes plunged 19.5%.
Buyers have shifted decisively from leg quarters to drumsticks. The price gap between the two categories has widened again, with drumsticks trading at $1.22/kg compared with $1.16/kg for leg quarters. The market has returned to its normal pricing structure, in which drumsticks command a premium. Chicken wing prices continued their downward trend, falling 1.5% to $2.39/kg, while trading volumes dropped sharply by 21.7%.
Wing prices have already lost approximately $0.33/kg from their peak of $2.74/kg and have yet to find a bottom. Trading volumes are declining as buyers withdraw from the market. This is currently the weakest segment of the broiler market. The price bubble has not simply burst; it continues to deflate.
An analysis by weight category reveals a reversal in the medium-sized bird segment.
Small birds (up to 1.13 kg) declined 0.8% to $2.90/kg, although trading volumes increased by 7.5%. The price premium has been narrowing for three consecutive weeks, encouraging buyers to return as prices fall. Medium-sized birds (1.14–1.59 kg) were the main driver of the week's price growth, gaining 1.2% to $2.55/kg, their strongest increase in several weeks. However, trading volumes fell by 8.0%. This is the mainstream market segment, and its price growth is being driven by reduced supply rather than stronger demand. Large birds (1.59 kg and above) stabilized, recording a marginal price increase of 0.1% to $2.00/kg, alongside a 6.1% rise in trading volumes. Processors are cautiously returning to the market.
Strategic Context
The market has entered a phase of acute supply shortages. Trading volumes have declined for six consecutive weeks, reaching a historic low. At the same time, prices are rising in some segments, such as MSM and medium-sized birds, while falling in others, including chicken breast and wings. This indicates a structural adjustment in the market: producers are reducing output in some categories and increasing it in others in response to changing demand.
The sharp increase in MSM prices suggests that processing activity is gaining momentum. The collapse in chicken breast prices indicates that retailers are reducing purchases of premium products. Falling wing prices suggest that sports bars and restaurants have yet to recover fully.
Short-Term Outlook
In Week 41, the overall broiler price index is likely to attempt to consolidate above $2.59/kg, potentially testing $2.60/kg. However, the sustainability of this increase remains uncertain, as it is supported by supply shortages rather than stronger demand. Key indicators to monitor include:
1. Mechanically separated meat: Whether prices can hold around $0.54/kg. If they do, this could signal further gains.
2. Chicken breast: Whether prices find a bottom near $2.60/kg. If trading volumes continue to increase, prices could fall below $2.58/kg.
3. Drumsticks: Whether prices can hold around $1.21/kg despite exceptionally high trading volumes. This will be a key indicator of the health of the dark meat market.
4. Chicken wings: If trading volumes fail to recover, prices could continue declining toward $2.36/kg.
The overall picture is of a market where prices are rising on thin trading volumes, but the internal structure remains highly uneven. This is not a healthy recovery but rather a supply-constrained equilibrium. If supply begins to recover, the index could quickly reverse its gains.
.png)
