The main pressure comes from energy markets, as rising oil prices are supporting higher quotations for vegetable oils and sugar. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Food Price Index (FFPI) averaged 128.5 points in March 2026, increasing by 2.4% compared to February. This marks the second consecutive month of growth. On a yearly basis, the index rose by 1.0%, although it remains nearly 20% below its peak level of March 2022.
Price increases affected all major commodity groups — cereals, meat, dairy products, vegetable oils, and sugar. The key driver was higher energy prices amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Cereals: Price Growth Despite Comfortable Supply
The cereal price index reached 110.4 points (+1.5% month-on-month). The main contribution came from rising wheat prices (+4.3%), driven by deteriorating crop conditions in the United States due to drought and expectations of reduced planting areas in Australia because of higher fertilizer costs.
Corn prices increased slightly (+0.9%) as ample global supply offset rising costs and expectations of stronger demand from the bioethanol sector.
Meanwhile, rice prices declined by 3.0%, pressured by seasonal supply, weak import demand, and currency factors.
Vegetable Oils: Strongest Growth Driven by High Oil Prices
The vegetable oil price index rose by 5.1%, reaching its highest level since mid-2022. Prices increased across all major oils — palm, soybean, sunflower, and rapeseed.
The market was supported by rising crude oil prices, which strengthened expectations for increased biofuel production. Additional support came from lower production forecasts for palm oil in Malaysia and limited supply from the Black Sea region.
Meat: Growth Driven by Pork and Beef
The meat price index increased by 1.0%, standing 8.0% above last year’s level. The main drivers were higher pork prices in the EU due to seasonal demand and rising beef prices, particularly in Brazil, due to reduced export availability.
At the same time, lamb prices declined due to increased supplies from New Zealand, while poultry prices showed a slight decrease, partly due to logistical constraints affecting shipments to Middle Eastern markets.
Dairy Products: First Increase Since Mid-2025
The dairy price index rose by 1.2%, marking the first increase since July 2025. The main drivers were higher prices for milk powder and butter amid reduced supply in Oceania.
Meanwhile, cheese prices in the EU continued to decline due to increased production and weak export demand, while Oceania showed the opposite trend.
Sugar: Sharp Increase Driven by Biofuel Factors
Sugar recorded the largest increase, with the index rising by 7.2%, reaching its highest level since November 2025.
The key factor was rising oil prices, which increased expectations that more sugarcane in Brazil would be diverted toward ethanol production. Additional pressure came from risks to trade flows due to the Middle East conflict.
However, overall price growth was limited by favorable global supply prospects, including strong harvests in India and Thailand.
Conclusion: Market Remains Stable but Sensitive to Risks
Despite rising prices, the global food market remains relatively stable due to sufficient supply, especially for cereals.
However, future trends will largely depend on energy markets, fertilizer costs, and geopolitical developments, which remain key sources of uncertainty for the global agricultural sector.
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